United We Stand, Divided We Fall

UNITED WE STAND, DIVIDED WE FALL

Don’t know what it means, but I had strange dreams last night after the Iowa caucuses. I think it relates to anxiety, but if there are any dream-interpreters out there, let me know. ;-)

Actually I’ve chewed over some of the results I’ve seen and come to a couple of conclusions.

First There is a serious issue to work out with evangelicals, or it seriously threatens the current and future success of Republicans and conservatives at the national level. And the alternative is that Democrats/liberals will rule the roost in Washington for the foreseeable future. If that’s what you want, so be it. If not, this needs to be worked out.

• The bottom line is that Mike Huckabee won about 2/3 of the evangelical vote, and Mitt Romney won about 2/3 of the non-evangelical vote in Iowa. Huckabee won simply because there are more evangelicals than non-evangelicals in the Iowa Republican caucuses. In other words, this vote was largely along religious lines; this is what they call “identity politics” where evangelicals voted for Huckabee more because he is “one of them” than because of any policy or positions he has. This is a very dangerous game as I’ll review below.
• Iowa’s Republican Party is most decidedly NOT like the rest of the nation in terms of its voters. This Iowa Republican caucus is one of the only voter groups where a majority is evangelicals. So if we are playing the “identity politics” game, Huckabee is very unlikely to have much success elsewhere. And that’s referring to the REPUBLICAN primaries. If you go to the general election, there’s an even lower percentage that fit this bill of “Huckabee supporters.” In other words, choosing Huckabee is the same as throwing in the towel for Republicans this year.
• I’ve noticed a fair amount of discussion in Republican/conservative circles about “the Reagan coalition” and whether it can hold together right now. What this is referring to is that you have some voters whose highest priority in politics is “social issues” including having a President who will nominate justices to the Supreme Court who are more likely to be friendly to traditional family/marriage when this gets challenged in court and so forth. There are other voters who are more “libertarian-oriented” such as wanting smaller government and lower taxes and more “free market” promoting. Then there are others who have their priorities set on a strong foreign policy, a strong military, promotion of freedom and democracy around the world, etc. These three groups were essentially all brought under the “Republican tent” by Ronald Reagan in the late seventies and eighties and this has led to a lot of success by Republicans since then.
• The problem with Mike Huckabee is that his “identity politics” works only with the social conservative groups, and not even all of them (I consider myself one of them but I can’t stand Huckabee). Hence, he will be a “divider, not a uniter” and that spells doom as I say.
• Huckabee’s campaign manager suggests this coalition has weakened too much, so they’re not even aiming to unite these groups. If that’s their position, they haven’t said exactly how, then, they expect to ever win a national election. Who will take the place of the excluded voters?
• Of the other candidates, most feel that Romney is the one best positioned to maintain unity among these three groups and draw their support.

Second I don’t really like this fact, but I believe it is true that although all 50 states need to vote, the way media and momentum and money work in politics, time is very much of the essence. What happens now in Wyoming and New Hampshire will mean a whole lot (may even be definitive) in the overall process.

• Wyoming caucuses tomorrow (Saturday). If you live in, or know anybody who lives in Wyoming, GET THEM OUT FOR ROMNEY tomorrow!
• If I recall correctly, there will be one Republican candidates’ debate on Saturday in New Hampshire. Romney needs to be strong there and compelling.
• New Hampshire votes next Tuesday. He is neck-and-neck with John McCain there. Again, if you have any ties to NH, pull them. A Romney win there could change everything. By this point, attention to Huckabee I hope should be waning, since he’ll do poorly there, and likely in Wyoming also.
• ALSO: if you can do so, a $25 or $50 or $100 donation to Romney right now may be the best timing possible for you to give and help him. Do that at his web site: www.mittromney.com. Any phone calls, e-mails, or other contacts you may have to all your family and friends but particularly if they have ties to these early-voting states, could mean a whole lot.

FINALLY, AN UPDATED REVIEW OF THE CANDIDATES AT THIS POINT:

Romney Not taking first place in Iowa hurt a lot. Taking second place by a good margin is still good in that it means he’s still right in the race. But it does put a lot more pressure on for success in Wyoming and New Hampshire. He’s no doubt the best candidate to be a “uniter, not a divider” for Republicans.

Huckabee If there is anything right in the world, please let it be true that Huckabee never wins a state again! See above. Nice guy, no doubt. Horrible in terms of his politics and mark my words, he WILL deeply divide the Republican Party if he wins.

McCain I’m somewhat of two minds about John McCain. The first thing that must be said is that he voted against the Bush tax cuts and has promoted immigration related legislation that most Republicans oppose. His McCain-Feingold law involvement is hated by many conservatives as being essentially anti-free-speech and therefore anti-constitutional. He also has at times vocally and specifically criticized conservatives. What this all means is that there are large blocks of Republicans that strongly oppose him. He may be able to get some independents and Democrats, but only if Hillary wins (something now very much in doubt with Obama winning for the Democrats in Iowa). Hence, he also appears to be a divider for Republicans, though not as bad as Huck. On the other hand, I think McCain is good with military and foreign policy issues and is a great leader. If he wins, I can certainly support him. But I fear for his chances winning the national election. And if he wins in NH, it is at least serious and possibly fatal to Romney.

Giuliani So many things point to weakness in the Giuliani campaign right now; not only slumping national numbers, but serious opposition by social conservatives and those for whom the immigration problem is a paramount issue. I could support him were he to win, but I have serious doubts that he will, and again, his success would be largely at Romney’s expense.

Ron Paul He’ll be famous among libertarians, and nobody else. Again, whatever success he has just draws strength from candidates who can win.

Thompson Despite coming in I think 3^rd in Iowa, I believe I read he’s dropping out of the race. Where his supporters go will be very important.

Democrats Hillary still maintains a national lead, but Obama just got huge momentum. My gut is that Obama may well take it for the Democrats. I think Hillary is the easier opponent to beat in November; but, we’ll just have to see how it goes.

SO NOW IS THE TIME TO MOBILIZE EVERYONE! More to come, and I’ll leave you with a few other comments I’ve seen on blogs yesterday and today:

• “Mike Huckabee: The only people I know who are excited about a Huckabee victory are friends who are rigidly pro-life Democrats. That about sums it up.”

• “It's also one of the only good pieces of news that Mitt Romney got tonight. Romney's going to have five of the most hair-raising days in recent American politics. He has to sizzle in the coming debate, somehow take the Wyoming caucus on Saturday and get people to care about that, and then beat back McCain's surge in New Hampshire.”

• “The good news for Romney-ites: Your man got a tough, tough blow tonight. It happens. Your guy, and you, are going to get back up on the horse and start trying again. Maybe you push hard in Wyoming, and by Monday you can say you've come in second in one state and first in the other. Then you push hard in New Hampshire. Maybe John McCain beats you there, maybe he doesn't. Then you get back up on the horse and ride into Michigan, and give it your best shot there. And your man has the funds and the resources to keep on going, all the way through Super Duper Tuesday.”