From New Hampshire to Michigan

OK, so here’s where we stand. John McCain took 1^st in New Hampshire with 37% of the vote to Romney’s 32%. Huckabee was a remote 3^rd at 13%. In terms of delegates, of New Hampshire’s 12 total, McCain would get 7, Romney 4, Huckabee 1.

That would make the cumulative totals for the top 5 candidates at this point as follows:

Romney 24 (30 with "RNC National Delegates")

Huckabee 18 (21 with "RNC National Delegates")

McCain 10

Thompson 6

Giuliani 0 (1 with "RNC National Delegates")

This presents an intriguing picture. Usually by this point, one candidate has started to “separate themselves from the pack.” This year, by contrast, we have had a different winner in each of the first 3 states, and no clear front runner with the momentum.

For the Democrats, the result I think was stunning. I think nearly everyone was "sure" Obama was on a roll and Hillary was going to lose again, but she pulled off the upset and it makes the race for the Dems as wild and unclear as for the Republicans. It was quite an amazing turnaround.

If you had to pick a front runner for Republicans right now, I think it has to be Romney. He has the most delegates so far, and is the only candidate highly competitive in all 3 states (and polling competitively in the next 3: Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina). He is the most organized of the candidates in these next 3 states, as well as nationally.

This may truly be a rarity in presidential politics: a real ‘horse race’ all the way to the convention. It at least seems likely to not be clear until after the big 24-state primary on February 5^th, and maybe all the way to the end.

What this also means, is that because this is looking to be an extended process, significantly more resources and effort will be required by the candidates who are still in the race. This process is usually like a long training process followed by a short sprint. This year, it’s looking more like a marathon.

I would really encourage you to go to Romney’s campaign site (www.mittromney.com) today, and note that they are planning a “National Calling Day.” You can sign up to call from home during certain days and times over the next week, I believe. In addition, I think this clearly signals the need for more resources for ads, etc. in the upcoming states. Again, a donation of $25, $50, $100 or more would be terrific, and there are enough of us in this e-mail/blog circle to make a difference.

I’m not totally certain how the media will “play” or “spin” this result, but they will likely give McCain the kind of positive attention Huckabee got after Iowa (why didn’t Romney get that kind of positive attention after Wyoming? Interesting question…). But the bottom line is that Michigan is next and is HUGE for Romney (sound familiar?). He has some advantages. He was born there, and his father was a three term governor there from 1963-1969. And in the latest poll (it’s a few weeks old) he was up a point over Huckabee and 7 points over McCain and Giuliani.

The difference a win in Michigan could make for Romney can hardly be overstated. It would provide real momentum, which in this race appears to be very hard to come by.

Bring it on, I say…bring it on!