Initial Shot in the '08 Battle

OK, so better late than never! I haven’t been sending out the political topical e-mails to encourage discussion on the big political campaigns underway like I did in 2000 and even more in 2004…basically because (1) having a little baby and five kids along with being scoutmaster and doctor have me really squeezed on time! And (2) I’ve been a little less settled on the candidates in terms of who I like best and their chances of winning, etc. so I’ve been trying to “feel things out” for some time now.

Well, #1 hasn’t changed, but #2 is starting to, so here goes!

First, my initial thoughts on the major candidates: both parties but especially the Republicans still have very fluid races and it’s not at all clear who will win the nominations. That said:

Republicans

1. Mitt Romney - in the past month or so has risen up to be my definite first choice both in terms of thinking he would be the best nominee and the most likely to win next November. He handles challenges and questions both easy and hard with great skill – so shows great political ability. He has solid conservative positions (though at this stage in the race, all candidates are deliberately non-specific on most issue positions and proposals). The way he has handled himself on “the Mormon issue” has been impressive, and I agree with the National Review’s endorsement of him (conservative publication): he is the one Republican candidate most likely to unite the “three subgroups” of the conservative coalition (economic, social, and foreign policy) which is a critical part of winning in November. And, he is one of the only major candidates to have significant “executive experience” (i.e. he’s actually been in charge of big organizations – business, the Olympics, and the state of Massachusetts). He had to work with a highly Democrat-controlled legislature in Massachusetts to get things done so has shown ability to communicate with and work with groups that oppose him politically (though of course Washington is by far the toughest nut to crack in terms of making bipartisanship work). My only beef with Romney’s positions is the same beef I have with all the Republicans except maybe McCain – they do not address the immigration issue in terms with what to do with 12 million undocumented immigrants already in the country. I love Bush’s position on this to develop a way to legalize the status of these people, but there has been too much heated opposition for Bush to make progress on this front).
2. John McCain – I actually really, really like McCain. I would have supported him in 2000 and 2004 if it weren’t for Bush being my man. Yes, he’s older, but with him I have no concern about that. He’s healthy in every respect and handles grueling schedules without trouble from what I see. He does have a few doubts among some conservatives, but my feeling is that they are minor and can be worked out. I do think he could win in November, especially if Iraq continues to overall be fairly stable as it has been more recently (he’s a strong supporter of our efforts there, for which I love him). My main thing is as things stand now in the polls, he seems not very likely to win the nomination. If he did start to gather momentum, I could easily support him.
3. Rudy Giuliani – Rudy still leads in national polls among Republicans but with less than 25% still. And I do like him overall. Love to listen to him and you can see why he was a great leader in New York after 9/11. However, he does not have much support among large groups of the Republican base due to being seen as the least conservative/most liberal on social issues such as abortion, gay marriage, etc. And he would have a difficult time getting that support which will be necessary among other things to win in November. Could he win in November? Yes. But I don’t like his odds as much as Romney or McCain. Also due to his problems with supports from some groups of Republicans, he is unlikely to win in the early 3 states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He would have to win big in Florida and gain support from there.
4. Fred Thompson – it’s strange to me that I have him this low on my list. He communicates well, is a strong conservative and by all accounts a good man. However, it’s amazing how relatively uninterested he appears in campaigning hard. As far as I can tell, to have a chance you have to at least want the nomination and work your butt off to get it. As a result, he lags in the polls – generally around the 4^th place position among Republicans and it’s hard to see where he’s going to have the ability to gain specific momentum along the way. I think he would make a great president but right now it’s hard for me to pick or support him other than that he “could” be good.
5. Mike Huckabee – I didn’t have much opinion about him at all until the past month, other than he seemed reasonable and conservative in the candidate debates. Well, that has changed dramatically and Mr. Huckabee is now the only Republican candidate I strongly, strongly oppose. Why? Basically because he has essentially declared himself to be running as a minister and an anti-Mormon one to boot. I don’t recall this level of religious bigotry in a candidate for president in my lifetime. Not only does it offend me personally, in practical terms there is NO CHANCE that such a candidate could possibly win the presidency. Even if he were to win the Republican nomination (which I highly doubt), he would lose in a landslide to the Democrats in November. Can you tell I really, really don’t like Mike Huckabee?
6. Others – I don’t think any other Republican has a chance to win the nomination. After the first 2 or 3 primaries, the little support these lesser candidates have will likely swing to candidates who are gaining momentum and wins early.

Democrats

1. Hillary Clinton – in spite of recent advances by Obama and some mistakes on her part, I still think she’s more likely to win than not. Since politically I fall more on the moderate conservative side, I find myself opposed to most of the Democrats’ priorities and policy positions, and since Clinton has shown herself to be mainstream Democrat at best and likely more liberal than average at worst (look to her history particularly in her time as First Lady to Bill), I can find loads of reasons to oppose her…but I’ll leave that for another time. In terms of her odds, though, we’ve seen this before…a late swing by a candidate who had been trailing in the polls doesn’t often succeed against a highly established and well funded front-runner. I still think that’s likely to be the outcome for Democrats.
2. Barak Obama – he’s charismatic, for sure…hence his recent upswing in polls in Iowa and nationally. And there’s not much difference between him and Clinton on policy other than maybe foreign policy where Obama is more accommodationist in some ways (appeasement?). We’ll just have to see how the Clinton-Obama thing comes out.
3. Edwards – to be brief, I don’t think he has a chance…except possibly to become a running mate.

What are all your thoughts on the candidates and what will happen? The first primary (Iowa) is January 3^rd so almost upon us! Other early ones are New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, and I think I’m missing one or two…

Merry Christmas all!

Toran