Post-Debate Analysis

Some thoughts after the Reagan Library Debate in California Monday night.

(1) I don't know whether or not our efforts will be successful this week in gaining the support needed to win enough states next Tuesday, but it was screamingly clear tonight who the best candidate is among the Republicans: Mitt Romney. Romney was in command of his facts, himself, his presentation; he knew what he wanted to communicate and he did so clearly and effectively. He was tough but gentlemanly; he was not mean. He again had the most memorable lines of the night.
(2) John McCain was, with the exception of a few moments, almost the polar opposite of Romney's strength. I know I'm "partisan" in regards to how I feel about the candidates, but trying to take those glasses off it still looks the same to me, and I think I'm supported in this by the focus group and "dial meter" evaluations of undecided voters watching the debate tonight. McCain can appear mean and snide too often. He was on the defensive for much of the debate--not what you would expect from the frontrunner. He looked ridiculous in trying to defend his lie about Romney (on Iraq timetables). It made him look small. He sounded like a one-issue candidate, and even if that issue is Iraq, which is an important one, it made him look limited. By contrast Romney held forth on a whole variety of important issues, from foreign and economic policy to health care and social security ('entitlements'), to the qualities of leadership that are most important for a president to have.
(3) Huckabee had a few funny lines, as usual, but also came across as the little kid in the class who keeps waving his hand in the air with an "oh! pick me! pick me!" I have to give him credit, though, for having the best answer to the last question referring to Ronald Reagan. Huckabee I still believe has that politician-sneaky sense to him, and is not nearly as substantial as he should be on key issues. But I will say he has added something to the primary process. The unfortunate thing to me is that his record as governor of Arkansas has a number of quite liberal policies not least of which was significant tax increases, but because he is conservative on social issues he attracts some conservatives. The unfortunate thing for ALL conservatives is that when Huck's supporters vote for him rather than Romney, they divide the conservative vote that needs to be united to defeat McCain. If they do that, ALL conservatives will lose in the end.

Finally, a quote from Hugh Hewitt after the debate: "Republicans...will almost certainly walk away disquieted by the prospect of a McCain nomination, both because of his ideas and even more so because he just didn't look electable tonight. Romney did. In fact McCain's best part of the day was when Rudy was talking about him, and it went down hill from there. McCain will get another assist from Arnold tomorrow or Friday, but it is hard to hide the fact that this would be a second Bob Dole campaign, with less energy and fewer conservative principles. Many, many Republicans have to be worried not just about losing the White House, but about a dispirited party and a down-ticket wipe-out. McCain supported the surge. That's true, and a very strong point. But is it enough to wage a nine-month campaign on?"

NY for Mitt has posted a number of video clips from the debate if you would like to watch them click on this link.