This seems like the perfect time to take a closer look at the candidates, the “horse race,” and the media at this point in the campaign season. Click on some of the links below for some very interesting additional reading (I’ll try to give brief summaries).
The general state of the campaign remains as complicated as ever. For the Dems, Edwards might complicate things and affect who wins…but he isn’t going to win. Between Clinton and Obama, I really think the jury is still out. I feel like I can make an equally strong case for either one of them becoming their nominee. Their debate in Las Vegas was a bit of a “love fest” or “fence mending” after all their recent race and gender attacks and anger.
For the Republicans, I think in almost every way you would have to call Mitt Romney the leader at this point as we’ve discussed, though not by much. The one exception is that he still lags in the national polls (I think he’s approximately tied for 3rd on that measure), but given what kind of a race this is, my estimation is that this doesn’t mean much. For example, once a candidate or two decides to drop out of the race, and one candidate starts to win several big ones in a row, I think those national numbers will change big time.
Mitt Romney The Michigan exit polls tell us something about how Mitt’s messages are being seen by voters. He was strongest among Republicans, conservatives, and those who care about pro-growth economic policies. Age and gender didn’t seem to matter much—that is, both old and young, men and women in Michigan voted for Romney over McCain and the others.
Mitt’s talk to the Detroit Economic Club showed his capacity to understand and frame economic issues and solutions. He focused on Michigan and the auto industry, but you get the sense he would be amazing as president in leading our economy. The National Review editors put it this way today: “…Huckabee, Romney, and McCain. On economic issues, Romney is the best of the three.”
The mainstream media (MSM as they refer to it in political blogs) still remains bafflingly hesitant or even negative towards Romney for the most part. I find it very strange, and only partly understandable. Consider how the media ignored the Wyoming results, even though there were about the same number of delegates at stake as in Iowa or New Hampshire. Will the MSM give the same slight to Nevada if Romney wins there and just focus on South Carolina? And just look at how the MSM has reported Romney’s win in Michigan compared to McCain’s in NH. And here’s conservative commentator Fred Barnes’ comment: “In case you hadn't noticed, the media loathes Romney and likes McCain.” He’s not sure why other than McCain has established a rapport with the press in previous election cycles, including appreciation of his sense of humor.
A found a few blog posts on the results in Michigan that I found interesting:
From Rich Lowery of the National Review: “For someone who was running ahead for so long in the early states, Mitt Romney had to run from behind in the first three states once crunch time came. Huck exploded to a lead in Iowa that Romney chipped away at, seeming to pull even on the last weekend, before seeing it slip away. He was running behind McCain in New Hampshire before a late surge that fell short, putting him in a respectable second. Then, he was behind in Michigan and facing the abyss, before fighting back, and this time prevailing. This has proved that Mitt doesn't have a "glass jaw," and the political adversity has provided the opportunity for him to find a theme — fighting for the American economy and for jobs. He now has to broaden out the pitch that worked with Michiganders and make it more genuinely national. But the good news is that his campaign is revitalized, with an advantage on the issue of the economy that is probably going to be even more important in weeks ahead.”
And: “It doesn’t seem so shocking that Mitt Romney has apparently won the Michigan Republican primary. Michigan has the one of highest unemployment rates in the U.S., and he put forward a plan to help the state’s leading industry. Whatever you think of its merits, it has to more appealing to voters than McCain’s approach of “kinda sucks to be you, but hopefully you’ll feel better knowing that you’re being sacrificed for the greater good of helping me to feel like I’ve made a statement about global warming.”
Here is a link to a great interview of Romney yesterday by Larry King.
And how about this line (cracked me up) from Romney at a GOP family values candidates’ forum several months ago: “Hey, I’m the only one up on this stage who’s had only one wife – and I’m the Mormon!”
Mike Huckabee He’s not dead yet, but Michigan sure didn’t help him. He came in a distant third but got only 15% of the vote. He has a chance in SC but I’m not sure where else. Check out this article which I think supports my contention that Huckabee’s appeal his been almost strictly on the basis of church affiliation, and why he would be so divisive for Republicans.
John McCain I think he remains the top competitor to Mitt Romney. He doesn’t compare right now in total delegates to Romney, but he’s known and respected nationally, and has his New Hampshire win and now a second place in Michigan, and the MSM has been treating him as the frontrunner now since even before the NH vote. The #1 problem McCain has in my view is that he has too often sided with liberal Democrats on major bills in the Senate (think who he paired with on McCain-Feingold for campaign finance restrictions and McCain-Kennedy on the Senate immigration bill), and has visibly taken on conservatives on a number of issues. Could he mend those fences if he becomes the nominee? For the most part I think yes, but it does complicate his path in the primaries and would affect the national campaign in the fall.
Fred Thompson As he says, he has been a “consistent conservative” and is a smart and delightful person. It’s possible he might win in South Carolina. If he does, he might have some chance. But it’s hard for me to see him really gaining traction and coming through this process. I would love to see a Romney-Thompson ticket.
Rudy Giuliani It seems to me he continues to fade. He actually came in behind Ron Paul with just 3% of the vote in Michigan. I can’t see any reason that he won’t continue to fade. That said, I respect him and like many of his policy positions. He’s very strong on the War on Terror, which is one of the most important issues we face.
Democrats
For what it’s worth, I found a comment on MSNBC tonight interesting. All the Democrats are trumpeting the theme of change. One commentator sees Clinton as pushing for change based on party (i.e. change by getting an establishment Democrat in the White House), Edwards as pushing for change based on power (i.e. taking down “the rich” and “fighting for” liberal policies), and Obama as pushing for change based on personality (i.e. because we like him) but without specific policies and in particular without “consensus” policies that could gain bipartisan acceptance.
And on the humorous side…in the Democrats’ debate in Las Vegas, they were asked what their greatest weakness was. The gist of their answers was this:
- John Edwards: My greatest weakness is that I care too much, Tim. For 54 years, I've been fighting. I emerged from the womb with my dukes up, ready to do battle with every fiber of my day-old being.
- Hillary Clinton: My greatest weakness is that I get impatient — impatient with people who don't care as much about children as I do.
- Barack Obama: My greatest weakness? Sometimes I misplace stuff. I'm a little disorganized. It's probably a good thing I'm not in charge of my own schedule.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
One last thing…presidential campaigns are more about moving forward than looking back. That said, President Bush’s legacy as well as the ongoing status of the War on Terror, including Iraq and Afghanistan, will come up particularly when it becomes the Republican vs. the Democrat. As you know, I’ve plugged and enjoyed the blog “Evangelicals for Mitt.” David and Nancy French I believe were involved with starting that blog. David is a lawyer in the military and is serving with his unit in Iraq. Here he discusses the difficult and complex but real progress he sees being made there.
No comments:
Post a Comment