Your Personal Executive Summary

3 days remain until most of us have the chance to have our say in the nomination process. I have such a sense of urgency with so much at stake. Normally I don’t have this sense of urgency until we are facing the Democrats, but this is an unusual year. I believe, as has been said, that this is a fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party and for the future of the conservative cause in America.

I am much more pro-Romney than anything else, but I feel like I have to address as much what I’m against right now as what I’m for. Time is short.

In John McCain, we have a man who has been strong on the war on terror. Unfortunately, that’s about the only nice thing I can think of to say about him. Can you think of any other conservative cause he has contributed significantly to? And then think of all the things he has fought for on the other side—working with liberal senators like Feingold (in restriction of free speech), Kennedy (amnesty for illegals), Edwards (boon for trial lawyers), and Lieberman (unilateral pollution caps that only Americans will pay for and will do little to clean up the environment). He seems to delight in sticking it, not to Democrats and liberals, but to conservatives, and has shown a serious mean streak in doing so over the years.

Because of this, many conservatives are prepared to “sit this one out” rather than put a man who has championed liberal causes more than conservative ones in the White House with a “Republican” label to his name. The danger is not only of losing the presidency, but of suppressing the conservative vote enough to lose seats in the Senate and the House, which would significantly weaken our only protection left against liberal legislation. It could also deeply divide the Republican Party and require rebuilding that could take years…and this at a time when we are already in it to the hilt trying to stop liberals from further changing America from its traditional values and roots.

So, at this crucial time, let me give you somewhat of an “executive summary” of where we stand today:

(1) After Florida, we must say that nearly across the board McCain has a slight advantage. However, the way this 21-state Super Tuesday sets up, that slight advantage could well become an unstoppable one if we don’t gain support for Romney now.

(2) Mike Huckabee and his supporters are key to what will happen on Tuesday and beyond. For some reason that I can’t quite fathom, Huckabee has been supporting McCain against Romney, despite the fact that most Huckabee supporters are strong conservatives who abhor John McCain’s liberal accomplishments and mocking of conservatives many times in the past.

a) Huckabee’s supporters have been committed to him, but there are some that recognize that, if their support of their candidate could be deeply damaging to the conservative cause they might consider their options, even in support of Romney. There are a couple of examples I’ve mentioned here and here.

(3) As in the post below, there is some encouraging news out of Maine, where Romney looks like he may get the win in the caucuses there today!

(4) Before I go over the status report of all the Super Tuesday states, may I just highlight the importance of a few states: California, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, Colorado and Georgia I think are 6 critical Super Tuesday “swing states” and may I also say that if Romney supporters in Arizona could pull off the surprise, it would be massive in importance. And since Alabama is a second home for us, nothing would please me more than a win there!

(5) Here is the list of states voting on Tuesday (yes, it is long!) and a short review of what the optimistic chances are in each state (yes, you who know me, I am natively optimistic but I’ll try to be reasonable). An ‘*’ means the state delegates are winner-take-all. The other states divide the delegates in some way.

West
• California (173) – A real battleground which could well be divided down the middle, but Romey has a real chance to get significant delegates here.
• Arizona (53*) – McCain expected to win in his home state, but Romney has good support there. A Romney win there would be unexpected but HUGE.
• Utah (36*) – Romney likely to win. The LDS population and the fondness we hold for him due to his work at making the 2002 Olympics successful give him strong support here.
• Colorado (46) – A close one, but some recent polls give Romney an edge. This would be a critical one to help Romney turn things around against McCain.
• Montana (25*) – Polls suggest Romney has gained support in Montana, again would be a critical win.
• Alaska (29) – No good polling there. This is the one state where Ron Paul hopes to win or do well, but I’ve seen reports from Alaska suggesting that Romney has really come on strong there. They hate McCain due to his siding with the Democrats against drilling for oil resources in ANWR in northern Alaska.

Western Midwest
• North Dakota (29) – Again no great polling that I’ve seen, but there are suggestions Romney has real support there and could win. This is one of those “off-the-radar” states that could really help Romney.
• Oklahoma (41) – McCain has a lead in polls, but it’s not insurmountable. This is one of the “swing states” if you will in this Super Tuesday vote, and a Romney win would be amplified greatly in its significance.
• Minnesota (40) – Very much like Oklahoma in that McCain has some lead in polls and is expected to win, but a great outpouring of support for Romney there would be like a bullhorn to the nation.

Midwest
• Illinois (70) – I consider the two “birthplaces of the Republican Party” to be Abraham Lincoln’s Illinois, and Ronald Reagan’s California. Expectations are for McCain here, but again it is not an insurmountable lead in the polls. Maybe this birthplace of the Republican Party can be the lead in the rebirth of the party!
• Missouri (58*) – McCain has a small lead, but recent polls have shown a tightening, almost a 3-way tie between him and Romney and Huckabee. Missourians for Romney! Again, a swing state that would be huge.

South
• Alabama (48) – Huckabee has a definite lead. This looks like a long shot but again, we’re not talking about 20 point leads here. At least McCain is not so strong there, but a shift from Huckabee to Romney might make a difference.
• Georgia (72) – Polls have showed a real tightening, with a situation not unlike Missouri. Georgia has a lot of delegates. Even a relatively small shift of Huckabee supporters to Romney in Georgia could make a big difference.
• Tennessee (55) – McCain has more of a lead here. Situation otherwise like Alabama. It’s the divided vote of conservatives that could give it to McCain, so again much is in the hands of Huckabee supporters in the next 3 days.
• Arkansas (34*) – Huckabee unlikely to lose his home state, although he does have his own opposition in the state.
• West Virginia (30) – Not much polling there, but it does appear to be leaning McCain. See the discussion of Tennessee, because I think the same could be said of WV.

Northeast
• New York (101*) – This one of only a couple of states where I have a hard time seeing McCain lose. This is in large part due to Giuliani’s endorsement and his support among Republican insiders and moderates.
• Massachusetts (41) – Polls have shown Romney with a large lead in his home state, so hopefully a big win there and significant delegates.
• New Jersey (52*) – The discussion here is identical to New York.
• Connecticut (30*) – Haven’t seen much polling there. The assumption is that McCain will win there like NY and NJ, but until we know otherwise, why shouldn’t Romney win there? They’ve been able to observe the turnaround of Massachusetts in their region under Governor Romney and may see and appreciate the strengths he offers.
• Delaware (18*) – Polls have suggested that courageous Delaware may buck the trend of NY/NJ, etc. and vote for Romney. This would show some regional support in New England for Mitt.

(6) I’ve recently posted a couple of other things if you would like to scroll down to review…especially about an event in Illinois.

(7) Finally, later tonight I will post a review of what I think are the principal concerns of voters who have not yet embraced Romney, and in particular Huckabee supporters, and see if we can’t work those out. Again, I keep saying this but I sure wish we had more time to discuss and work out differences, but the moment of decision is fast approaching. Let’s do what we can!

Thanks all!