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Wednesday, February 6, 2008

And After Further Reflection

We are clearly to a point where things are relatively simple in terms of the primary process from here on.

(1) The opportunity to stop John McCain is small but does exist. But the power to influence this lies now in the hands of the voters of just a few states: Washington, Kansas, Louisiana, Virginia, Maryland, and DC are the principles over the next week. If they vote strong for Romney, the race will be rejuvenated. If they don't, there is no real change in momentum which lessens the chance for success going into the next big ones which are on March 4th: Ohio and Texas along with the smaller Rhode Island and Vermont.
(2) Therefore, if you or anyone you know can vote in or help with the primaries in these states, that's where the action lies and you can do what none of the rest of us can now.
(3) Barring such a significant change in momentum, it will be unlikely that Romney could amass the delegates for the nomination.
(4) Cooperation with Huckabee and his supporters would be the other path to victory, but seems very unlikely as we've discussed. Still, should his supporters in the remaining states to vote be willing to vote for Romney and conservatism over their candidate, it could shake things up.
(5) The one other issue I see is that even if Romney doesn't gain a lot of momentum, he and Huckabee could still gain enough additional delegates to deny McCain the outright win. That would require a brokered convention, which would certainly be decided for McCain but may allow conservatives to extract additional assurances and commitments from McCain going forward. And would there be a chance of Romney as VP or in a McCain cabinet? Maybe. And if so, it could be a launching point for a run in 2012. All speculation here, of course, but interesting to consider.
(6) If we are not able to stop McCain from becoming the nominee, then my opinion is that we need to reformulate our strategy to pursuing conservative principles. It may involve finding "pressure points" to try to ensure that McCain fulfills whatever promises and assurances he may make to conservatives. It will certainly require an invigorated effort to support Republicans for Congress and the Senate this fall, as they will become our principle means of both stopping the liberal agenda and finding opportunities to pursue the conservative agenda. This may be challenging without having a nominee we fully believe in for president, but we will find a way to do it.

Bottom line: we're not dead yet in the nominating process, and if in the short term we have some setbacks and discouragements, we will simply press forward in new ways for the longer term. Never, never, never give up, right?

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